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View topic - Example strategy Lay the draw Bf Bot Manager - Betting bots for automated betting at Betfair and Betdaq Example strategy Lay the draw Example strategy Lay the draw

by KongUK » Tue Feb 28, 2017 3:47 pm

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by Rade » Tue Feb 28, 2017 3:54 pm

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by KongUK » Tue Feb 28, 2017 3:56 pm

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by Rade » Tue Feb 28, 2017 4:02 pm

Re: Example strategy Lay the draw

by KongUK » Tue Feb 28, 2017 4:25 pm

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Lay The Draw Trading Strategy, Online Money Spy

Lay The Draw Trading Strategy The simpliest football trading strategy

Lay The draw is the most popular football trading system. This Strategy is mostly used by beginners. If you apply this strategy to the correct type of match, you are almost guaranteed to profit 100% of the time.

The Strategy

The concept of this strategy is very simple – when a goal is scored in a football match, the prices of all the match outcomes (home win, away win or draw) changes. How it changes depends on many factors such as which team scores the goal and the time of the goal. In this strategy we are trying to lay the draw before the kick-off, and back it at higher price after goal is scored, therefore securing a great profit.

Select match by the following criteria:

  • Favourite odds is lower than 2
  • Odds on draw is lower than 4
  • In last 3 games there haven`t been 0-0 draw for none of the teams
  • The favourite team scores more than one goal in match on average
  • Head-to-Head between the teams indicates lots of goal (should be within the last two years)
  • The liquidity in the market should be at least 40 000

  • If the favourite team scores first, I get out of my position and green up
  • If the dog scores first, I do the “Metaltone” strategy: back the draw for 50% of my initial lay stake and lay the “dog” for 75% of my initial lay stake. If there is an equaliser, you can then green up for overall profit. If there is no equaliser and the dog goes on to win, I accept the loss (or in some cases small profit) that I have on the dog and move on to the next game
  • If still 0-0 when the draw price hits 2.0, I “red” up and accept the loss

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Is Laying The Draw Actually Profitable? Winners Odds

Is Laying The Draw Actually Profitable?

Laying the draw has become an incredibly popular approach to football betting.

But is this approach actually profitable over the long term?

There are a huge number of variations of the lay the draw system, so I can’t speak for them all — But the basic idea behind all of the lay the draw systems isn’t in itself profitable.

At least not over the long term…

The idea behind laying the draw is pretty simple. Before a football match starts, you go onto a betting exchange such as the Betfair exchange and you place a lay bet on the draw. Then you wait for the match to kick off and keep watching until the first goal is scored. When the first goal is scored, the odds on the draw should increase allowing you to cash out your bet for a profit.

That all sounds fine and dandy.

But where the system falls apart is when the match ends in a 0-0 draw… or an underdog scores the first goal against a heavy favourite…

In these situations that odds for the draw aren’t likely to increase higher than they were at the start of the match meaning you will lose money when they happen.

Laying the draw can work well over the short term, but as a betting strategy it will never make a profit in the long run for one simple reason…

The lay the draw strategy is not based on value.

For a betting strategy to profitable over the long term it needs to be based around taking value. There is no way of getting around that.

And by “taking value” I mean that you need to be placing bets where the odds you are taking are higher than the true chance of that bet winning suggest they ought to be.

There’s no guarantee that your placing a value bet if you’re blindly laying the draw.

In fact, with lay the draw being so popular, it makes it even more likely that laying the draw is a very poor value bet due to the number of people also laying the draw — therefore driving the lay odds higher and higher.

No lay the draw strategy – (that I’ve come across at least) – takes value into account, and so it’s doomed to fail.

Until next time,

P.S. If you want to make a profit from your betting, take a look at the tipster portfolio.

These tipsters do take value into account when considering their bets and that’s why their tips turn a profit over the long term.

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Winning betting strategies. Lay the Draw strategy. Laying the draw is a Betfair soccer trading strategy, I will teach you how to technically lay the bets .

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