Hedge Bet Spreadsheet Programs - Sports Betting

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Sports Betting

Hedge Bet Spreadsheet Programs

Category: Betting

Description

Laying spreadsheets with 2 Dutching methods

hedge bet spreadsheet programs

Spreadsheets that use more than one Dutching method.

Spreadsheets for trading football.

Trade Correct Score bets or lays with other Betfair markets

Dutch and Hedge in 2 Betfair markets using balanced staking.

Lay first or bet first spreadsheets for trading football.

If we bet and lay in 2 related markets, Betfair is unable to show our whole market position across both markets.

Our betting exchange will only show our market position in the 2 individual markets.

Betfair cannot show losses or gains in 2 markets combined.

The 2 football "Dutch and Hedge" spreadsheets below overcome that problem by showing our total market position across 2 markets, including commission deductions.

The Dutch and Hedge spreadsheets below were designed for use in football markets but can be used for trading across 2 related markets in any sport.

Losses may not be deducted before commission.

When we trade across 2 or more markets in Betfair, we may think that we see a profit from our total trade, but commission deductions can put our whole trade into the red.

That may not be obvious whilst we are trading.

As you know, losses in one market are not deducted before commission is deducted in a 2nd winning market, so trading across 2 markets rather than in one can be expensive

  • Don't trade the same thing twice.

    If you trade across 2 or more related markets, it is very important that you don't trade the same thing twice.

    The Scores 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 are the same as Under 1.5 Goals.

    It would be a mistake to lay those scores and also lay Under 1.5 Goals.

    If you make a mistake and Lay the same thing but in different markets, you could have payout on the same result twice instead of once.

    If you bet on the same thing and don't hit a winner, you will have more losing bets than expected.

    It is very important that you are sure of the relationships between Betfair markets.

    Betfair provides a wide range of markets for the same event, especially for football matches.

    Many of these markets may be related in that you could bet in one market and lay the same thing in another, or bet in both, or lay in both.

    There's only one winner.

    As a shortcut, these related markets can save us time whilst trading and help to keep things simple.

    Unfortunately, these "Betfair shortcut markets" are of most benefit to Betfair.

    If we trade in a single market, losses are deducted from winnings before commission is paid.

    If we trade 2 related markets, losses in one market are not deducted from winnings in a 2nd market, so commission will be paid on total winnings in one market rather than total profit of the whole trade.

    Also, if we have a big loss in one market but smaller winnings in a 2nd market for an overall loss, we will still pay commission on the winnings profit that we have in our 2nd market.

    If the whole trade was all in the same market, there would be zero commission to pay on a losing trade.

  • You are probably already aware of those points above.

    The extra commission payments and losses not being deducted before commission don't do us any favours, but will be big winners for Betfair when they collect their commission.

    We all trade across 2 related markets at some point, but it can be expensive.

    The spreadsheets below were designed specifically to trade Betfair's Correct Score market with other related markets such as Match Odds, Under/Over Goals, etc.

    Dutching your trade with balanced staking, may be far easier to work with than simply guessing the size of stakes "In Play" during the heat of battle when the pressure is on.

    These spreadsheets are split into 2 sections.

    These individual sections can be used to Dutch and Hedge a single market or 2 markets combined.

    Dutching stakes are balanced and across both markets for an equal profit or loss before commission deductions.

    Hedge an individual selection and the spreadsheet shows the stake required to trade that single selection for an equal profit or loss.

    Note that due to Excel calculations working to several decimal places, returns may differ very slightly from what is shown on your Betfair screen.

    Depending on stake sizes, there should normally only be a few pence difference between the spreadsheet and Betfair.

    Use this spreadsheet to bet several selections in 2 different markets.

    Also, after placing bets, lay any individual bet to equalize that part of the trade.

    The spreadsheet shows our whole market position after commission deductions, across both markets combined.

    After payment via PayPal, select the "Return to merchant" option on the PayPal screen.

    PayPal should then route you to a download web page where you can obtain the Excel spreadsheet file.

    Use this spreadsheet to show the stakes required to bet several selections for an equal profit or loss in one or 2 Betfair markets.

    Then, if you choose, as the odds change, lay to equalize individual selections for an equal profit or loss on those selections.

    After betting, enter lay odds into the sheet for any of those individual bets and the sheet shows the lay stake required to equalize that individual selection for an equal profit or loss.

    Our position is shown in the 2 single markets, and also across the 2 markets combined.

    Commission deductions are built into the spreadsheet.

    Use this spreadsheet to lay several selections in 2 different markets.

    Also, after placing lays, bet any individual lay to equalize that part of the trade.

    The spreadsheet shows our whole market position after commission deductions, across both markets combined.

    After payment via PayPal, select the "Return to merchant" option on the PayPal screen.

    PayPal should then route you to a download web page where you can obtain the Excel spreadsheet file.

    Use this spreadsheet to show the stakes required to lay several selections for an equal profit or loss in one or 2 Betfair markets.

    Then, if you choose, as the odds change, bet to equalize individual selections for an equal profit or loss on those selections.

    After laying, enter bet odds into the sheet for any of those individual lays and the sheet shows the bet stake required to equalize that individual selection for an equal profit or loss.

    Our position is shown in the 2 single markets, and also across the 2 markets combined.

    Commission deductions are built into the spreadsheet.

    Copyright notice. In the videos below, any Betfair content shown is for demonstration purposes only, and is presented with the kind permission of The Sporting Exchange Limited. © The Sporting Exchange Limited.

    The videos below demonstrate these 2 spreadsheets.

    Video 1 demonstrates the spreadsheet inputs and how the spreadsheets work using the Bet First spreadsheet.

  • Video 2 demonstrates the Lay First spreadsheet.

    Spreadsheet inputs for this sheet are as demonstrated in video No. 1.

    For a BIGGER VIEW of these videos, click the small icon bottom right with 4 square corners.

    To move from one video to the next, click the "Next" arrow, bottom left of the YouTube screen.

  • Video 3. Bet in Correct score using an insurance bet to cover a 0-0 result.

  • Video 4. Lay in Under 2.5 Goals in Correct Score using insurance against a 0-0 result.

  • Lay combining 2 Dutching methods

    Copy what a bookie mighty do. Target runners to lose.

    These Double Dutch spreadsheets combine 2 different methods of Dutching in their calculations.

    To use these spreadsheets, you will need your own selection method for finding suitable runners to lay.

    2 Basic strategies.

    Lay one or more targeted runners to lose.

  • Lay other runners to reduce the liabilities of those targeted runners.

    If we hit the winner with one of these extra lays, we break even on the whole trade.

  • Alternatively, we can stake so that we show a profit if we hit the winner with one of these extra lays.

    If we lay non-target runners for a profit, we only need to lay 2 or more of these extra runners to show a profit if we hit the winner with one of them.

    These profitable extra lays also reduce the liabilities of our targeted runners.

  • As these Non-Target lays will either break even with zero loss if we hit a winner with one of them, or will show a profit, we may not be too concerned whether we hit a winner or a loser with one of these non-target Lays.

    Copyright notice. In the videos below, Betfair content shown is for demonstration purposes only, and is presented with the kind permission of The Sporting Exchange Limited. © The Sporting Exchange Limited.

    Break even on non-target lays

    After payment via PayPal, select the "Return to merchant" option on the PayPal screen.

    PayPal should then route you to a download web page where you can obtain the Excel spreadsheet file.

    This spreadsheet was designed for laying just one or 2 target runners well before race time.

    Occasionally, the odds of a target runner would go down dramatically, which could indicate that it might win.

    Using the stakes shown in this spreadsheet, we can lay any other runners we like to reduce our liabilities on our target lays.

    We have placed our target lays earlier in the day.

    In order to maintain those lay stakes as we lay additional runners to break even, the additional non-target, break even lay stake sizes grow rapidly as we enter more odds into the sheet.

    Once we feel comfortable with the liabilities shown in the spreadsheet against our target lays, we place the non-target lays in Betfair.

    This method uses larger lay stakes on non-targeted runners than the other methods shown here.

    These larger lay stakes on non-target runners can make this method very profitable if we don't hit the winner with one of our lays.

    This spreadsheet can be used to lay up to 10 target runners and up to 15 non-target runners.

    Videos not yet available.

    Lay to set stakes limit on a target runners.

    Break even on non-target lays

    After payment via PayPal, select the "Return to merchant" option on the PayPal screen.

    PayPal should then route you to a download web page where you can obtain the Excel spreadsheet file.

    This spreadsheet was designed for laying just one or 2 target runners to a set stake.

    We then lay other runners to break even to reduce the liabilities on those target lays.

    Because of how the spreadsheet works, it would be best to either place the non-target lays first followed by the target lays, or place all the lays at the same time.

    As we enter odds into the spreadsheet, the stakes for the non-target lays remain unaltered.

    The stakes for target lays alter as other odds are entered or removed from the spreadsheet.

    The 2 Dutching methods used for these calculations can be used individually if we choose, giving several options for different ways of Dutching our lays.

    Demonstrates inputs and how the Lay spreadsheet works.

  • An example of Lay Dutching several runners in Betfair.

    A betting version of this "Break Even" Dutching spreadsheet.

  • Lay up to 4 targeted runners to lose.

    Lay other runners to profit.

    After payment via PayPal, select the "Return to merchant" option on the PayPal screen.

    PayPal should then route you to a download web page where you can obtain the Excel spreadsheet file.

    Whilst watching televised horse racing, television presenters often tell us that the bookies are targeting one or 2 runners to lose, but will profit if anything else wins.

    The bookies will lay most if not all of the runners, but only lose if the winner is one particular horse or maybe comes from 2 particular horses.

    The spreadsheet below shows the staking for doing that.

    A bookie may lay every runner, but we don't need to lay many selections to make this work for us.

    Using this laying method we can lay a few runners and profit from some of them even if we hit the winner with one of our lays.

    Video 1 demonstrates inputs and how the spreadsheet works.

    We can Lay lots of runners but only show liabilities against 1 or 2 runners, with a profit shown against all our other lays

  • . Lay several runners in a horse race, adjusting the stakes to balance your trade

  • . Target 2, 3, or 4 runners to reduce liabilities on targeted runners.

    The football match described near the end of this 3rd video ended with a score of 3-2.

  • How to Lay or Bet below the Ј2 minimum.

  • Other articles

    Craps Hedging 2

    Craps Hedging 2

    by Frank Scoblete

    In this Learn to Play Craps lesson, we continue the discussion with Craps Hedging 2.

    First, let’s establish how dangerous a come-out roll is for a $20 Don’t Pass bettor.

    It is very dangerous as he stands to lose $160 when the 7 and 11 roll and win a mere $60 when the 2 or 3 rolls. That’s a net loss of $100, on average, for every 36 come-out rolls.

    So this clever player hedges his $20 Don’t Pass bet by wagering $5 on the Any Seven bet, which pays off at four to one.

    If the shooter rolls a 2 or 3, our Don’t Pass bettor wins $20 but loses his $5 Any Seven for a gain of $15. How often will he win that $15? Three times for a net gain of $45.

    Now, the formerly dreaded 7 rolls and what happens?

    A washout on the six times that would have previously been losers as the Any Seven wins $20 and the Don’t Pass loses $20 on each and every 7. We are still losing on the 11, a loss of $40 but overall, at this stage, we are ahead $5.

    But then the craps hedging falls apart as we still have to get past those 24 Point numbers and the “bar 12,” the totality of which costs us $125 for the Any Seven bet, for a net loss on the Don’t Pass come-out craps hedging of $120 -- instead of the $100 had we not hedged at all. That’s a 20 percent increase in our losses! Depressing. So, memorize this: Don’t,“Don’t” hedge!

    This craps hedging method involves betting the Field (the numbers 2, 3, 4, 9, 10, 11, and 12) along with Place bets on the 5, 6 and 8.

    Doing this covers 30 of the 36 possible outcomes of a craps roll -- an 83.33 percent success rate.

    Let’s see how this can work for a $10 bettor. Our Field Hedger bets $10 on the Field, $10 on the 5, and $12 on the 6 and $12 on the 8 for a total wager of $44. Any time one of our Field numbers hits, we win $10, except on the 2 and 12 where we win $20 as these pay off at two to one. However, when the 5 hits, we win $14 but lose the $10 Field Bet for a net win of $4. When the 6 or 8 rolls, we also have a net win of $4 on each because we again win $14 but lose $10.

    In 36 rolls that perfectly reflect probability, the Field Hedger will win for a total of $212.

    This craps hedging system looks great but the clinker comes with the appearance of the evil 7.

    On the six occasions when the “devil jumps up,” we will lose all of our bets -- $44 X 6 = for a loss of $264.

    Therefore, this hedging system costs the player $52 for a completed sequence of wagers in the long run.

    Yes, you will win 30 decisions and lose only six decisions, but those six losses will kill you. Field hedges are poison ivy for the craps player; avoid them.

    If we expand the definition of hedge to include any multiple bets that work “together”, then surely the Pass Line with Odds fits the bill.

    If you have $25 to wager and decide to put it all on the Pass Line, you will face a smallish 1.41 percent house edge and an expected loss, on average, of 35 cents each time you make it.

    However, if you decide to break the bet up into two different ones, the Pass and the Odds, then you would put, say $5 on the Pass Line and, once up on a point number, back it with $20 in Odds.

    The Odds bet is a separate bet, albeit one that can only be made if you have the requisite Pass Line bet in action. Your expected loss is now reduced to seven cents each time you use this as your mode of betting. That’s a healthy hedge.

    If you find yourself falling for hedge-betting’s allure, perhaps you should ask yourself if you are betting too much money in the first place. The need to hedge often comes from a sense of insecurity in the bets you want to make.

    If a Pass Line bet of $50 makes you tremble at the thought of a loss, perhaps a more modest $10 should be your bet, and forget about trying to “insure” your $50 bet with an Any Craps hedge.

    Craps has scores of individual bets that can be made during the course of play -- from Hardways to Crazy Crapper proposition bets, to the Field, to all varieties of Place bets on the “Do” and the “Don’t,” to the Pass Line, Come, Don’t Pass, Don’t Come, Odds bets to Hop bets, and then every possible combination of each. The totality of the betting possibilities would be staggering.

    The overwhelming majority of bets at craps—stink.

    Craps Hedging2 is followed by Regression Betting

    GT is attentive about getting the word out about our free programs, lessons and add-ons offered, however, we ask your assistance and consideration in promoting us.

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    Tips, Terms & Wins

    Craps Numbers: 11, known to everyone and all as the “yo-eleven,” is my favorite of the craps numbers because it comes from the department of redundancy and repetition department.

    The house edge on the yo-eleven is, holy cow! 11.11 percent. Something’s up.

    The yo-eleven, which literally means 11/11 comes in with an 11.11 percent house edge.

    The Blog of a Betfair strategy developer

    hedge bet spreadsheet programs

    From draw advantage expert to strategies with spreadsheets.

    A brief history of losing, research and development, and winning,

    or how I went from a minor who wasn't old enough to bet,

    to a supplier of picks and shovels for the Betfair Gold Rush.

    Formulas and maths of trading

    Strategies for horse racing and football trading

    Laying strategies and spreadsheets for Betfair trading

    A very accurate analysis of U.K. horse racing draw advantages.

    I have enjoyed betting and especially horse racing since I was a lad.

    Whilst I was still at school, my dad took me to quite a few northern racecourses such a s Thirsk, Ripon, Catterick, Haydock, York, Donny, Redcar, and Stockton (befrore it closed).

    That's where my interest in horse racing came from.

    Later on we hit Cheltenham a couple of times, when Night Nurse won the Champion Hurdle.

    What a great horse he was.

    When I got older, we used to meet up on a Saturday afternoon for a few beers and trips across the road to the bookies for a few bets.

    There were no pictures in those days, but the commentator on the "bookies blower" could give anyone a heart failure on a Saturday afternoon.

    My dad knew an apprentice jockey's dad who lived in our village, and we used to get the occasional tip from the stable.

    I'll never forget a horse called Caribbean Boy.

    Caribbean Boy was a 7F horse.

    The trainer used to run it over various distances and unsuitable ground (I guess) to get its handicap down.

    We used to get "the word" when it was due to win.

    The race that sticks in my memory was a race at Ripon one Saturday afternoon.

    The blower commentator excelled himself that day.

    "2 furlongs to go, and its so and so, so and so, so and so, etc., etc," with no mention of Caribbean Boy.

    "Entering the final furlong and it's so and so, so and so, so, and so, etc., etc,"

    "200 yards to go and it's so and so, so and so, so, and so, etc., etc, with Caribbean Boy making a move from the rear. "

    "100 yards to go and so and so, so and so, so, and so, etc., etc, with Caribbean Boy coming on the outside"

    "Nearing the post and it's so and so, so and so, so, and so, etc., etc, with Caribbean Boy still making headway on the outside" . Christ . Come On !!

    "Inches to go and Caribbean Boy is getting up !"

    With half the village on Caribbean Boy, the cheer that went up that day must have been heard miles away.

    The jockey is now a successful trainer.

    To this day, in our house we never refer to that trainer by his name.

    When we see him being interviewed on television, we always refer to him as "Caribbean Boy".

    My dad was very good at picking winners, but I lost every week.

    I started to study southern trainers who sent only one runner up to northern race tracks.

    My theory was that it probably cost just the same to send up 2 horses as one, so a "One horse raid" was what I looked for.

    I used to look for single runners from southern stables at a whole meeting.

    If the race meeting lasted 3 days, the qualifyers had to be just one runner throughout the 3 days.

    I looked at the final days racing for single runners from southern stables, and then eliminated any of those horses if a the stable had had a runner on one of the previous days.

    My selection method improved, and I began to hit more winners.

    It paid to specialize.

    Ron Boss was my favourite "one horse raider" trainer at that time.

    When he sent just one horse up north from Newmarket with the expense of a horse box, staff etc, quite often he meant business.

    Later, I began to keep records of other things and eventually studied draw advantages in horse races.

    As my knowledge of draw advantages increased, I found I needed to bet on more than one horse, to put my information to best use, so I began to collect different Dutching formulas for the staking of more than one runner.

    I taught myself computer programming using BASIC, and built a few programmes for Dutching.

    My first programmes were written on a Sinclair computer with a rubber keypad.

    I used Dutching to stake up to 6 well drawn horses using bookie accounts, or placed bets in shops.

    I now use those Dutching formulas and a selection of Hedging formulas for building Excel spreadsheets.

    S tarting stalls were introduced to The U.K. at Newmarket on 8th July 1965.

    They were first used in The Derby in 1967.

    It's obvious to me that an analysis of a count up of the number of wins from each starting stall should reveal which stalls are favoured by the draw.

    In over 40 years since the introduction of starting stalls, very few accurate studies have been made.

    Most draw advantage advice seems to be based on guesswork.

    Take a map of the course, a few personal observations, and Hey Presto ! there's your draw advantage advice.

    Even today, despite the availability of very powerful computer software, newspaper draw advantage advice and that given by television presenters and web sites, continues to be extremely poor.

    In 1982, I published a book of draw advantage charts, with 6 years results 1976 to 1981.

    Some years later, I started to build web sites.

    I like to think my web sites are functional rather that pretty.

    By 2006, I published 10 season's results on my web site, startingstalls.co.uk counting the number of wins accurately for literally thousands of races.

    Using the presentation method that I perfected in the late 1970's, the advice I produced was extremely accurate, and was backed up by years of experience and past record keeping.

    I reckon I was the country's expert on the subject of draw advantages for quite some time - World Champion.

    Every week on my web site, I published newspaper draw advantage advice for high profile meetings and big races, and compared newspaper advice with results on the racecourse.

    None of the newspaper advice was worth the paper it was printed on.

    If you compare the advice given by The Racing Post, Sun, Star, and Mirror, you will see no end of totally opposing views.

    They cannot all be correct.

    My guess is that if you bet on the horses, you more or less ignore the draw.

    Why ? Because the advice available in newspapers doesn't work . it never has done.

    It's not based on facts and will let you down, probably sooner rather than later.

    In my opinion, draw advantages are affected by drainage, distance, the number of runners, and the positioning of the stalls - against the Low rail, the High rail, or in the centre of the track.

    Drainage and the going.

    If I race against you and I run on dry ground whilst you run on softer ground, who's going to win ?

    It is obvious that horses run faster on dryer ground.

    Identify where a faster strip of ground is, and you could be onto something.

    Races of 5F and 6F are a controlled dash for the winning post.

    In races of 7F and further, tactics come into play, so draw advantages deteriorate dramatically as distance increases.

    Number of runners.

    In races with large numbers of runners, there are often traffic problems, which usually causes draw advantages to be less effective.

    Also, at some courses, a few runners make break away from the main group and race at the other side of the track, searching for faster ground - again, not good for predicting draw advantages.

    Concentrate on races with limited numbers of runners, and from a draw advantage point of view, these problems are largely eliminated.

    Positioning of the stalls against either rail or in the centre of the track is often overlooked, but stalls positioning ALWAYS has an effect on the draw advantage pattern.

    This is all obvious stuff, but drainage, distance, the number of runners, and the positioning of the stalls are rarely researched correctly.

    The information I provided was very accurate, and allowed the reader to make his own decision regarding the draw if he chose.

    I provided a write up for every course and distance up to a mile, but anyone who could read a graph could draw their own conclusions from the presentation.

    Some of it was very powerful stuff.

    I like to think that my findings were responsible for Epsom Racecourse positioning the starting stalls next to the stand's rail in all 5F races since the mid 1980's.

    Previously, the stalls were usually positioned against the low rail (far side viewed from the stands), sometimes centre, but never against the high, stand's side rail as they are now.

    Also, I like to think I caused Doncaster Racecourse to lay new drains in the straight in the 1980's.

    That's how good my information was.

    Before you criticize those 2 observations, just ask yourself "What is your contribution to racing ?"

    These 2 links show articles published in the National Press concerning race results prior to these measures at Epsom and Doncaster being taken. Epsom 5F Doncaster

    Shortly after these articles were published, Epsom and Doncaster took action.

    The timing of their actions could be a coincidence, but I don't think so.

    Judge for yourself.

    From 2003 to 2007, I published draw advantage advice on my Starting Stalls web site.

    Site visitors who were willing to pay for draw advantage information in 2003 - 2004 were few and far between, so I made the information free from 2005 onwards.

    I began to concentrate my efforts on Excel trading spreadsheets from 2006 onwards.

    During my draw advantage web site period, I offered to supply draw advantage information to The Racing Post, and Channel 4, but nothing came of it.

    I stopped updating my information after the 2006 flat season.

    I ceased all the links on the Starting Stalls draw advantage web site, but I have uploaded the old files again for 2009, and put the links back on the web site.

    If you don't mind the info being a bit out of date, you can view my draw advantage advice, and see the method I used to show how results can be analysed accurately to produce excellent draw advantage advice.

    Once Betfair came along, it was some time before I started to use the site.

    I transferred my Dutching formulas onto spreadsheets for my own use, and also expanded into Hedging.

    In 2007, I started a spreadsheet web site with just a few spreadsheets.

    Be A Bookie and Hedge Your Bets were my main spreadsheets.

    A customer asked me if I could build a spreadsheet for the Football Cash Generator method that he had bought for Ј150.

    I now sell a "Hedge The Draw" spreadsheet package for Ј10.

    That is still very much the case these days.

    Most traders seem to rely on anticipating odds movements of single selections.

    For example, if you were to purchase 100 minutes of Bet Trader Pro or Bet Angel, you would probably need to use the software on your own trading strategy.

    Although there are training videos and lots of encouragement and assistance in the use of these software packages, I don't believe you are presented with a selection of strategies to go with them.

    At least that wasn't the case the last time I used one of them.

    I felt the Football Cash Generator method was very high risk if I hadn't exited the market well before the end of a game.

    Using that method, if no goals are scored, or the odds of the draw don't lengthen sufficiently after one goal, you have problems.

    I looked for an alternative method of trading in matches where the draw odds didn't lengthen sufficiently after a goal was scored.

    An example would be a game in which the outsider of the 2 teams scores first.

    In these games, the market may expect the losing (favourite team) to equalize and go on to win the game, so if the outsider of the 2 teams scores first, the draw odds may not lengthen to any great degree.

    I have developed a Dutching exit strategy for such games.

    I thought it a far safer trading method than chasing losses though the Next Goal - No Goal Market advised by the Football Cash Generator method.

    Next, instead of Hedging the Draw, I decided that Dutching all 3 outcomes in the Match Odds Market should produce similar profits for the same liability.

    My "Dutch A Football Match" spreadsheet has a very similar format to "Hedge The Draw".

    This strategy uses Dutching of draw score lines as an exit strategy if the odds don't move sufficiently.

    Most of my spreadsheet packages contain several spreadsheets.

    "Hedge Your Bets" is included as part of several packages.

    This spreadsheet allows the user to hedge out of any situation by equalizing a trade to a red or green outcome depending on your position at the time.

    After that, I began to study different football markets and how the odds were related.

    The Correct Score market can be used as an equivalent market in quite a few instances.

    For example in a football match, the odds of The Draw in the Match Odds market should be somewhere close to the combined odds of the 0-0, 1-1, 2-2, 3-3.

    Of course Any Other Score also covers 4-4 plus a range of Home and Away score lines with 4 or more goals, but the odds of these 2 markets will usually be pretty close.

    There are other equivalent markets.

    The only certain way that I have found to make money from gambling is trading bookie's free bet offers.

    Trade these offers correctly, and you are betting on a mathematical certainty.

    If you stake correctly, it doesn't matter whether you hit all winners, all losers, or something in between, you will win handsomely.

    You can even bet low and lay high in all your trades and still make a very good profit.

    All you need to do is bet with the bookie, and lay the same selection on Betfair or WBX.

    The only complication in these trades is what the bookie offers in terms of free bet stakes retuned or not returned, or different percentages of winnings awarded if you happen hit a winner.

    The spreadsheet package I offer covers different types of bookie offers :-

    Free money such as the Betfair offer.

  • Bet a deposit, free bet stake IS returned with winnings.

  • Bet a deposit, free bet stake is NOT returned with winnings.

  • Bet a deposit, get a percentage free bet, with free bet stake not returned with winnings

  • Bet a deposit, get another free bet on the same selection, with free bet stake not returned with winnings

  • My spreadsheet package covers all these free bet situations.

    If my dad was still alive, he wouldn't believe that any bookie would give anyone a free bet.

    There has never been a better time to be a punter.

    If you or I were to chuck money into the betting pool in the form of a free bet, would we expect to come out winning ?

    Of course not, and that applies to bookies.

    In my opinion, bookies are idiots to have gone into competition with one another with these free bet offers.

    There can only be one loser - the bookie.

    In this case, the bookie cannot win, provided you and I trade these B . wonderful offers correctly.

    The mathematical certainty of trading a free bet.

    If you stake correctly, it is impossible to lose when you Hedge a free bet.

    Even if you Bet Low, Lay High to the maximum when you Hedge a free bet, you will still make a profit.

    Here are the maths of a (theoretical) Ј1000 free bet Hedge, using the worst odds possible.

    Bet odds 1.01, Lay odds 1000 :-

    Bet odds of 1.01 with the Bookie, but Lay odds of 1000 with Betfair.

    Bookie return = Ј1000 x 0.01 = Ј10. (Free bet stake is not included with winnings).

    Betfair Lay stake = Ј10 / 1000 = Ј0.01.

    Win . Ј10 with Bookie, (Ј1000 x 0.01) less Betfair Lay liability Ј9.99 (Ј0.01 x 999) Profit = Ј0.01.

    Lose . Zero with the Bookie + Ј0.01 successful Lay on Betfair. Profit = Ј0.01.

    All hypothetical, but a profit is shown no-matter what odds you use.

    These Free Bet trades are a mathematical certainty, and the VERY LARGE percentage profit that you will get from Hedging them will ALWAYS cover any loss you may make whilst trading your deposit.

    Profit from Hedging your Free Bet is a nailed on certainty.

    That's a brief history of my gambling to date.

    You can see my apprenticeship was very long.

    Good luck with your trading, and many thanks for your interest in my web sites,

    3 - 9 - 1946. Aged 65, not that it matters.

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