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About betting strategies

Betting Systems and Betting Strategies

If you’re starting to see that you can’t live without sports betting with bookmakers and this hobby is depleting your finances, you should try to put your betting practices in order. We recommend you to test various betting systems and pick the best one which will help you minimize your losses, improve your performance, and make the betting process more exciting.

Most detailed information about Betting Systems and Betting Strategies Sports betting strategy

Almost any beginning bettor starts using different betting systems and betting strategies without even realizing it. For example, who has not tried to bet on favorite in football games?

Total betting strategy (in pursuit of profitable odds) is yet another widely popular betting system among novice bettors. Furthermore, spread betting is also a profitable method to make money on sports betting. Live betting comes in different formats and may be similar to standard pre-game bets or have unique characteristics.

Winning betting systems

Do winning betting systems and sports betting strategies event exist? There is just one ideal betting system that will protect you from losses. Sorry to disappoint you but this strategy is not to bet at all. Betting fans will hardly find this method acceptable. Any profitable betting system can improve your betting performance and increase your winnings but it does not insure you against losses. To put it differently, it cannot guarantee you endless winning streaks.

A flawless sports betting strategy is an individual choice. For example, if you are good at football and estimating play techniques of football teams, you can use a corner kick betting strategy. Remember that only you decide which winning sports betting systems to apply. The choice depends on your skills, experience, psychological aspects, discipline, and other factors.

How to pick the best sports betting systems and betting strategies

As you can see, there are plenty of different sports betting systems betting strategies to choose from. But you can always invent new ones and test them to find the one that suits you the best. It is much more exciting and profitable than using already existing strategies and betting systems. However logical and promising betting systems would seem to you, you must remember that your knowledge, skills, and intuition are further important factors in the mix.

With betting systems and betting strategies, you can improve your betting results, make accurate predictions, manage your bankroll more wisely, and control your betting process. Furthermore, you should develop strict discipline and self-control that would help you avoid reckless and random decisions and actions. According to statistics, such decisions hit your betting budget the hardest.

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Betting Strategies, Love Football Gambling

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Click on the links below to find out to open an online betting account and start taking advantages of all the free bets available.

Betting Strategies

A betting strategy can be broken down into two main parts, Method and Type.

The Method can also be broken down into two parts; first how do you make your bets?

Are you going to use an online bookmaker or a high street bookmaker? Are you going to use many bookmakers or just one or two?

Secondly how you quantify your risk, or to put it another way what point system will you employ?

Most people don’t pay much attention to their method, but paying attention to how you put your bets on will help you keep track of your profit and loss and that in turn will make you a better gambler.

Type is the kind of bet or bets you place, for example; are you going to go for

odds on, low risk, high stake, low payout selections every week, or are you going to go for long odds high risk, high payouts? Will you back just one or two selections each week or will you back four or five? Will you back them as singles, and accumulators or singles doubles and trebles?

Again; as with method, most people don’t pay attention to what type of bet they’re putting on over the course of a season and will employ many different types from week to week, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but as with your method it’s best to keep an eye on your type of betting, adjusting Type is often the way out of a losing streak.

We at Love Football Gambling prefer the multi-account online method, that is to say we bet through many different online accounts, we don’t rule out the high street altogether, but by and large you can get as many, if not more of a range of bets online and 99% of the time online prices will be better.

As far as point systems go we use the double liability 1 for 1 system. So in other words 100 points = £100, but £100 is twice what we’re prepared to lose on any one bet, so our maximum bet at any one time would be £50

Note: the point system is flexible and can change throughout the season, if it’s going well then the liability can change so that you’re betting more, or vice versa.

The benefits of the multi-account Method, is that it puts you in the best position to take advantage of the best price on any particular event. It also means that you’re more likely to spot ‘arb bets’ LINK (to betting terms) and best of all the more online accounts you have, the more free bets and promotional codes you’ll be exposed to.

The variation of types of bet are endless, there are of course many ways you can place a bet and a variety of ways in which you can combine those ways, but we’re just going to concentrate on a few of them here.

First of all the two main types of betting are Fixed Odds Betting and Spread Betting, first let’s look at Fixed Odds

Fixed Odds

Fixed Odds Type One: Long term-safe singles

Fixed Odds Type Two: Short term-safe singles

These two types; as the names suggest, both rely on selecting mainly singles, the long term singles type is whereby you choose a couple of teams and then stick with them for a season or till serious loss of form.

Fixed Odds Type One: Long term-safe singles

For example Glasgow Celtic and Glasgow Rangers win a very high percentage of their games, therefore putting £10 on each of these teams for each of their games, unless they’re playing each other.

This strategy will see you yield a small profit over the course of a season, for instance Celtic who won the Scottish Premier League (SPL) in the 2007-2008 season, played 38 games winning 28 drawing 5 and losing 5.

Two of the games they lost were against Rangers, so therefore using the guide above you wouldn’t have bet on those games. Meaning out of 35 games you would have won 28 times or 80% of your games.

The average odds of these games is going to be very low say around 1/4 meaning for the £280 staked on the 28 games your return would be £400 a profit of £120.

For the eight games you lost that’s £80, so your total return for a £360 outlay on Celtic over the 2007-08 SPL season would be £400 a return of just over 11%.

This may not sound much, but how many banks will give you 11% interest on your savings over a year? Admittedly investing in Celtic is riskier than investing in a bank but you’d have to go back a long way to find a season where investing in Celtic didn’t get you some kind of positive return.

For Glasgow Rangers you would have had similar returns, they won one less than Celtic, losing one more, but of course two of those losses were against Celtic (they play each other four times in the Scottish Premier League).

Considering those two losses were right at the end of the season, you might have even decided to cut and run from the ‘Rangers fund’ at that point, Rangers would have been disheartened as Celtic were on red hot form and Rangers would have felt the title slipping away.

The point is over a season these two teams will rarely let you down over the course of the season making them good long term gambling investments.

Fixed Odds Type Two: Short term-safe singles

As the name suggests, this type is whereby you choose safe singles on a week to week basis, paying more attention to runs of good form.

For example you might see that Reading are playing particularly well at home, but not so well away and that when it comes to mid to lower table teams, they’re really blowing their opponents away.

In that scenario you would obviously pay close attention to their home games, backing them till their form turned for the worse.

The disadvantage of this type over the long term-safe single type is that form can end at any time so you’re more likely to get burnt.

The advantage of backing teams that have just hit a run of form; especially if they’re only doing it at home, or even better away, is that the bookies are sometimes slow on the uptake and you end up getting a good positive odds bet, when really you should be getting evens or less.

Fixed Odds Type three: (mixed type) short term-safe singles/doubles

Fixed Odds Type four: (mixed type) random singles/doubles

These two types both take more money to back but will yield a higher return, but of course the risk increases.

Fixed Odds Type three: Mixed Type (short term-safe singles/doubles)

This type as the name suggests is whereby you make single bets at the same time combining them to make doubles.

The simplest example being picking two selections, say Everton and MK Dons, first you’d cover them as singles, hopefully the way the odds are set means that if one loses and one wins, then depending on which you either make a small profit or cover your bet.

Then you combine the two into a double bet, thus giving you an even greater profit if they both win, this is obviously a good tactic if you believe you have two very strong picks for that week.

As a general rule (though always remember rules are made to be broken!) you would put half the stake of the single on the double.

Below is a classic scenario,

Everton are on red hot form and are playing a newly promoted Sheffield United who are struggling, MK Dons you believe is a good spot, they’ve drawn their last two games 2-2 and 3-3, but they’ve just got their star defender back so the odds are favourable, so you decide to go £15.50 on Everton at 10/11 £10 on MK Dons at 13/10 and £5 on Everton & MK Dons.

The disadvantage of this is if you’re ‘banker’ loses, i.e. Everton get turned over by Sheffield United but MK Dons still win, you lose money, whereas if you had backed them as singles you would still have come out on top.

However should your banker win, let’s pretend it’s an early Saturday 12 noon kick off, then you’d be able to sit back and relax, knowing that you were definitely up, if the Dons lose, then hey, you’re up £4.50, but if they win you’ve made an extra £16.50 from the double bet.

This type does not have to be restricted to just two selections, you might find in a week as we often do, that out of the 46 or so in the English Football League and the 21 or so games in the Scottish Football League, you may discover 5 or 6 strong singles, which you decide to combine in different ways.

Maybe you’ll make three doubles from the six selections or maybe you’ll make more, but of course the more you make, the more you risk something going wrong.

Fixed Odds Type four: (mixed type) random singles/doubles

This type relies more on good spots than the others, as the random element is trying to find good value bets or even upsets and then pairing them up with a strong single.

For example Bolton Wanderers are on a hot streak and are playing a struggling Portsmouth who’ve just had David James injured and are without four first teamers. But Scunthorpe who are topping their league had a bit of a wobble last week, they’re playing Ipswich who are at the bottom of the table but they’ve got a new manager and had a convincing draw last week putting an end to a seven match losing streak.

So in this scenario you would pair up Bolton and Ipswich and wouldn’t be hoping too much to get odds of around 4/7 on Bolton and 3/1 on Ipswich.

The final Fixed Odds types we’re going to look at are:

Fixed Odds Type Five: (mixed type) Short term-safe singles/accumulators.

Fixed Odds Type Six: (mixed type) Random singles/accumulators.

Fixed Odds Type Five: (mixed type) Short term-safe singles/accumulators

This type is whereby you pick as many ‘safe’ singles as you can and then mix them up into selections of doubles, trebles, four-folds, whatever you can basically, though if they really are ‘safe’ singles then the chances are that on any given week you won’t have more than two or three.

Fixed Odds Type Six: (mixed type) Random singles/accumulators

As with the Random singles/doubles, you’re relying much more on good spots and upsets, you may find that you have as many as ten selections, which you combine in a number of ways, though this type is the likeliest of the six to go horribly wrong, if it does go right, you’re gonna be in the money!

Remember 1: the more selections you have on a single bet, the less your stake should be, especially if you’re going for lots of different multi-selection bets.

Remember 2: the more multi-selection bets you have, the less singles will be covered and the more you’re going towards a complete accumulator type, which while still a valid type, will tend to win far, far less than the other more conservative types.

Spread betting types

Spread betting is a completely different type of betting to the types we’ve explained above, all the previous types depend on a definite outcome on a certain event.

Spread betting is where you’re betting on a range of outcomes, it is more fully explained in the Love Football Gambling betting guide, so for now let’s just look at ways spread betting can be employed.

Spread Type One: Long Term Spread.

The Long Term Spread is whereby you bet on a series of events over the course of days, weeks or even the whole season.

So for example Manchester United have won the Premiership for the last three years with 90,87 and 85 points, so a spread betting bookmaker like sportingindex.com might put the points spread to win the English Premiership at 85-88.

So you may believe that it’s going to be a really competitive season and thus low scoring so you may go £100 a point below 85, another way to express this would be to sell at 85. Or if you thought that one of the top four would run away with it you might go £100 a point above or buy at 88.

Unlike fixed odds betting it doesn’t matter who wins as long as they win by more or less than the spread, depending on which way you’ve gone. If you sell £100 at 85 and the final points total is 80, then you would win £500 or 5 x your stake, however if you’d bought £100 at 88, you would have lost £800 or 8 x your stake.

If the final points total is 91 then you would win if you’d bought £100 at 88 then you’d win 3 x your stake £300 but if you’d sold £100 at 85 you would have lost 6 x your stake £600.

Spread Type Two: Short Term Spread

The Short Term Spread, as the name suggests is taken over a short time, like the 90 minutes of a game of football or till the firs goal is scored or the first yellow card is handed out, there really are a myriad of different types of Short Term Spread.

For example yellow cards =10 points red cards=30 points.

Barcelona are playing Liverpool in the Champions League, both teams like to play football and both teams are low in bookings and sendings off for the season, so the bookie puts the spread at 20-30.

In this instance you might agree with the bookmaker and go £10 a point below by selling at 20 or you might see that Barcelona are playing a full back who’s been injured up till now and has a reputation as a tough tackler, so you go £10 a point above and buy at 30.

If it is a dirty game and there are bookings galore you’re quids in if you went above, and licking your wounds if you went below. The thing to remember with this tactic is that you can often pull out of the bet if it starts going wrong, therefore cutting your losses.

The Guaranteed Type

The guaranteed type! I hear you splutter, how can you possibly guarantee winning? Well it’s simple you only ever bet on arbs, arb betting is whereby you find a game in which three different bookies are offering wildly different prices on the three outcomes.

So for example: Rochdale are playing Darlington.

Bwin.com are offering 9/5 on Rochdale, 19/10 on the draw and 2/1 on Darlington

Bet365.com are offering 6/4 on Rochdale 7/2 on the draw and 9/4 on Darlington

http://www.lovefootballgambling.com/?page_id=209 are giving evens on Rochdale 9/4 the draw and 3/1 Darlington.

Note that they all believe that Rochdale are the favourites, where they differ is by how much, bwin.com clearly reckon the draw or they have taken a lot of money on the draw so are trying to tempt bets on Rochdale or Darlington (preferably Darlington).

Bet365.com also believe Rochdale are the slightly bigger favourites and don’t believe in a draw or haven’t taken much money on it.

At Betfair.com you’re betting against other people and so therefore have managed to get a whopping 3/1 on Darlington.

So you would put £10 on Rochdale with bwin.com, then you would put £6 on the draw at bet365.com and finally you would take the 3/1 you were getting at betfair.com, bringing your total outlay to £22.

Now if the favourites Rochdale win then you get back £28 a profit of £6, if it’s a you get back £33 a profit of £11 and if Darlington win you win back £24 a profit of £2.

Of course in arb bet you’re still rooting for a particular result, in this case the draw, however it doesn’t really matter as whatever happens you net a profit and of course you would hope that you would be able to put on much more than the original £22 as you simply couldn’t lose.

The disadvantage of this type is that these bets don’t come along for often, or in fact hang around for long when they do happen, odds are changing all the time, so you tend to have to be quick, and the amount of research to find bets like this can be colossal.

Of course it helps if you have taken the multi-account approach and if you let us do the research for you and check the LFG tips of the week every week to make sure that you’re not missing out on any potential arb bet gems.

If you want to find out more about how fixed odds or spread betting works, go to the Spread Betting Explained page.

or click on the links below to read more of the LFG Betting Guide.

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Click on any of the links below or go to the top navigation bar and click on Free Bets to browse specific offers

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English premier league Betfair trading on the draw, a misunderstood betting strategy - Trading and Investing

Trading and Investing Guides to trading and investing English premier league Betfair trading on the draw, a misunderstood betting strategy

Trading the draw on football games is a popular bet trading technique. Check any well known forum like, online betting guide or punters lounge, and you will find plenty of talk about ‘trading the draw’ strategies. Something noticeable was that there was no talk of really successful strategies, that was something common among forum members. This makes sense, as any successful draw betting strategy will have a price. The cost is money or time. Or both, of course. Due to the cost it is no surprise that this information is not shared with lots of people.

This post looks at how to trade the draw properly and hopefully profitably. As with any trading, bet trading the draw is a game of choosing high confidence trades to place, in this case, selecting the matches most likely to produce a profitable move in the odds. In terms of Betfair trading if the odds move there is an opportunity to profit.

Let’s continue, and look at what football leagues to use, which games to use to trade the draw, and, how to exit trades to limit loses and maximise gains. Some things readers will already know or will need to learn include the the basics of Betfair swing trading, which betting software to use, and staking plans.

Briefly, trading the draw on Premiership football games follows the basic idea that to make a profitable trade people must lay at low odds and back at higher odds. The trader would place a lay bet on the draw and back the draw later when the odds increase.

[box type=”info” style=”rounded” border=”full”]The odds increase after a goal because it is less likely that the match will result in a draw.[/box]

Why trade the draw?

Firstly, the odds often react in a predictable manner. Let’s say we have a match where there is a good chance one team will score. The trader can assume that the odds at the start of the match will be shorter than the odds after a goal has been scored. Trading the draw could be quite a difficult task if the trader had to input all the bets needed to complete a trade individually. Using bet trading software the process is made much easier because the trader can complete a trade with just two clicks of a mouse. Let’s Compare Bets recommends Bet Trader from Racing Traders. Bet Trader has a free version where traders can practice or trade with real money on Betfair. This is good for beginners. There is a paid version for people who need more speed. For more information read the Let’s Compare Bets Bet Trader review or just access the website directly (both links open in a new window).

Something to bear in mind is that the odds of a draw will actually decrease as the match progresses if no goal are scored. As such, there can be a period during the game where the odds after a goal may not actually move significantly higher than the odds before the goal. This is one reason why a good match selection system is needed for draw trading.

League choice boils down to what information is available. Stats are important. The technique described in this post focuses on using football stats to help select which matches to trade. The Barclay’s Premiership is a good choice of league because accurate stats are freely and widely available. There are also some very good paid services. The following stats can be useful for selecting matches for draw trading. These include among others, goals for / against home and away, goal difference, and, corners won and conceded.

There are some key betting stats about the Premiership that help traders choose the best games (source Secret Betting Club’s Essential football guide). Home win advantage is something that is well known to people and it is strongest in the Barclay’s Premiership compared to other UK leagues. Moreover, some teams will have a much stronger home team advantage than other teams, meaning we know there is a much higher chance of that team scoring first, making it a great match to trade the draw.

Another useful stat is that if the home team won their last away game it also increases the chances that they will win (the game they are playing at home).

Which stats should be used to select high confidence games to trade?

  • Shots for and against for home and away games
  • Shots on target
  • Goal difference

Let’s look at an example of a good match. It is good practice to look at the home team first.

  • The home team has relatively high goal for numbers, a high positive goal difference (indicating they score lots more goals than their opponents) and has high shots on target. Home team stats only.
  • The away team has high goals against numbers, high negative goal difference, and low shots on target. Away team stats only.

Looking at this match it is highly likely that the home team will score more goals than the away team, especially if the their previous game in the same league was a home team win. This would be a good game to lay the draw and back for guaranteed profit after one or two goals.These stats can be used in a variety of different combinations to predict which games will be best for trading the draw.

A free resource which is most worthy of a mention is the Sunday Times Fink Tank football predictor (source Secret Betting Club’s Essential football guide). It uses a statistical model and a ranking system to produce match predictions, ranking factors and a game simulation. Fink Tank is free and it uses shots on target as one of the main ranking factors. One feature of Fink Tank which is useful for selecting matches for high confidence draw bet trading is the predictions for up coming matches. The chance of a draw is given as a percentage, which makes it easy to see which games are mostly likely not to draw.

Maximizing gains and minimizing loses of Premiership draw trading.

Entry and exit timing is an important part of increasing gains and reducing loses. The trader may decide to only enter a lay bet after 15 minutes. The average Premiership game produces a goal after about 20 to 25 minutes. By delaying the entry of the trade it ensures the entry odds are as low as possible. Also, the swing of odds will be larger after a goal is scored producing a larger profit.

How much of a loss should a trader allow before closing a trade? The trigger for closing a trade is measured as a percentage of the betting bank or by time. For instance if the trade moves against the trader by more than 20% it is close, or if there has been no goals at half time the trade should be closed. Another method is to close the trade if it risks more than a certain percentage of the betting bank overall.

Loosing trades are closed quickly. The number of winning trades need to outweigh the number of loosing trades to make the strategy a success.

What problems can occur with draw trading?

One risk is that the away team underdogs score first, in which case the odds might not move at all. Now the trader needs to either close the trade or sit tight until the odds lengthen enough to produce a profit. If the home team favourites score the odds will drop and a large loss can occur.

An example of trading the draw on a football match

Our guinea pig trader was watching the Euro 2012 group stage match of England Vs Wales and decided to trade the draw. It’s not a Premiership draw trading example, but it will do. It’s show it’s easy to do on any match as long as the stats suggest it is a suitable game. Why was this game selected. First of England where the favourites and playing on home turf (Wembley Stadium). They came out of their last game with a win. They have also been very good a winning corners, and more than the other side. Goal difference is on there side, etc etc.

When was entry made?

Unusually, England hadn’t scored after the first 20 minutes (this allowed the odds to shorten slightly). Our trader decided that this was a good time to enter a lay bet for £20. The game continued with no goal, which caused the odds to shorten, taking the trade into a loss. 10 minutes before the second half Ahsley Young scored a goal. The result is shown below: an image from bet trading software our trader uses. Look at the top right hand corner. That was the value of the trade after the goal was scored.

When to exit the trade?

England looked like the stronger side so our trader took the bold move of letting the trade run. Anyone without experience should have taken a profit here. If Wales equalise the odds will swing in the opposite direction and produce a loss.

[box type=”note” style=”rounded” border=”full”]This software is free from Racing Traders. The match odds are shown in the ladder format, England win, Wales win, and the draw. The column in the middle is the odds and the green box shows the odds being matched in real time (or very close to it). The blue column to the right shows back bets and the pink column to the left shows lay bets. The figures show the amount of money matched at those odds. There is a graph to the left of the column charting odds movement. The chart of odds for the draw shows that they jumped upwards just before the image was taken. To secure the trade and bank the profit the trader needs to click the green profit figure, top right.[/box]

Any one who watched the game would now that it was no plain sailing there was at least three occasions where Wales looked like they would score, so the odds got very choppy. After 75 minutes Wales started to dominate so our trader clicked the green number top right and banked the profit for a 32% return on the stake. Ideally England should have scored another goal and really guaranteed the result. In which case the trader could have let the trade run for the full £20.

What resources are good to use?

The Sunday Times Fink Tank is good for selecting games to dig into the stats. Football 365 is good for goal difference, and Betfair has a good form guide with head to head stats accessible from the football section. To make the trades Let’s Compare Bets recommends Bet Trader from Racing Traders, because it’s free and has been designed by a trader.

Swing trading should form a part of any serious trader’s kit of trading tools. The draw market is a good market for trading swings in the odds and Premiership football is a good place to start due to the availability of free stats. To subscribe to our Trading and Investing section click the button to the top right of the screen, press Control D.

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