Uk Football Forecast Predictions For Winter - Sports Betting

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Uk Football Forecast Predictions For Winter

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Europe winter forecast: UK to Germany on alert for wind storms; Rain to ease drought, wildfires in Spain and Portugal

Europe winter forecast: UK to Germany on alert for wind storms; Rain to ease drought, wildfires in Spain and Portugal

By Eric Leister, AccuWeather meteorologist
October 18, 2017, 8:03:46 AM EDT

Winter will start with a bang across parts of northern and western Europe as frequent storms bring disruptive rain and wind.

A mild start to the season throughout much of Europe will transition to a late-season chill across parts of central and eastern Europe.

Drier-than-normal conditions will bring no relief to areas suffering drought from eastern Spain into the Balkan Peninsula.

Frequent storms to bring wind and rain to the UK, France and Germany

An active start to the winter season will bring a high risk for named wind storms and other travel-disrupting storms from the United Kingdom into France, Belgium, Netherlands, Denmark and Germany.

The U.K. will be at the center of the stormy weather as frequent storms impact the country throughout the winter.

The stormiest time is expected during December and much of January before February brings some reprieve from the wind and rain.

The strongest storms of the winter will bring widespread travel disruption along with significant power cuts.

The frequency of these storms will also heighten the risk for stream and river flooding from late December through the middle of January.

Anyone living in or traveling to the United Kingdom this winter will want to make preparations for these powerful storms well in advance.

Waves crash over the sea defences the sea front at Portrush, Northern Ireland, Friday, Jan. 29, 2016. (AP Photo/Peter Morrison)

While wind storms will not be as frequent from France into Germany, several powerful storms are expected during the winter months.

"With any of the wind storms during the heart of winter, snow will be possible over Scotland and the higher elevations of the U.K. and also into parts of southern Germany and eastern France," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alan Reppert said.

"The combination of wind and snow can create dangerous travel conditions," he said.

Widespread travel and power disruptions are expected during the strongest storms with the potential for structural damage in the hardest-hit areas.

"Coastal flooding will be a concern as well, especially with the bigger storms and this could lead to further beach erosion across western coastal beaches that have been dealing with this for the last few winters," AccuWeather Meteorologist Tyler Roys said.

Mild air to be replaced by cold shots from Germany and Poland into the Alps

Near- to above-average temperatures will prevail throughout central Europe in December and much of January before winter finally arrives during the end of the season.

This mild air will be welcomed by anyone hoping to enjoy outdoor activities before having to break out winter coats.

Those anxiously waiting for cold and snowy weather in hopes of hitting the ski slopes may have to wait until the second half of the season.

High pressure building over Scandinavia during this time will help to direct cold Siberian air westward across the Baltic states and Belarus before settling into Poland, Germany and the Alps.

These cold shots will send temperatures below normal and set the stage for some late-season snowfall at lower elevations from Germany to Poland.

A snowplow clears the street at the Grosser Feldberg mountain near Schmitten. Germany, Monday, April 17, 2017. (Frank Rumpenhorst/dpa via AP)

Despite the mild start to winter, an active storm pattern will still promote frequent snowfall during December and January across the Alps, including many of the major ski resorts in France, Switzerland, Italy and Austria.

"Snow over parts of Germany and the Alps looks to be quite heavy for the end of the season, and this will keep ski slopes open longer into the spring," Reppert said.

Drier-than-normal winter to intensify drought and wildfire risk from Spain to Balkan Peninsula

While northern Europe will endure a wet winter, infrequent rainfall is predicted from southern and eastern Spain through much of Italy and the Balkan Peninsula.

Even though parts of Italy and the Balkan Peninsula received beneficial rainfall this autumn, more is needed in these areas to alleviate the severe drought conditions that developed during the summer.

"That's not to say that there will be no rainfall in these areas during the winter months; however, rainfall is expected to be lacking overall and will further exacerbate the ongoing drought," Reppert said.

Many of these areas will be in a worse drought exiting the winter than entering it, which could have significant impacts on agriculture in 2018 due to poor soil moisture during spring.

A view of the Po riverbed under Ponte della Becca (Becca bridge) shows the effects of the drought, near Pavia, Italy, Monday, July 24, 2017. (AP Photo/Luca Bruno)

"Crop rationing could be an issue again because of the lack of rain during the winter season," Roys said.

The lack of winter rainfall may also heighten the risk for wildfires next summer an autumn if spring rainfall also fails to reach normal levels.

Below-normal precipitation across the Balkans will also result in less snowfall in both the mountains and lower elevations compared to normal.

While snowstorms are expected to be few and far between this winter, the most likely time for one to occur will be during the second half of the season.

The most likely area to get beneficial rain will be across northern and western Spain as well as Portugal, as Atlantic storms bring occasional rainfall throughout the winter.

This rainfall will help ease drought conditions across the region and also lower the wildfire threat following numerous deadly outbreaks during the summer and autumn.

If the storm track is able to extend southward for a period during the heart of the winter, this beneficial rainfall could expand across the rest of Spain.

Cold air to set the stage for snowy winter across Baltic states, Belarus; Scandinavia to dodge the chill

Despite a mild start to winter across eastern Europe, change will be felt across the Baltic states and Belarus as occasional cold shots arrive in December.

"Even if winter is delayed in the east, snowfall will generally be around normal for places across Poland, the Baltic States and Ukraine," Roys said.

As the shots of cold air become more frequent, the likelihood of snowfall will also rise and result in extended periods of snow on the ground from Estonia to Belarus.

Locations from eastern Romania to Moldova and Ukraine will have a dry and mild start to winter. As the season progresses, more typical winter chill will set in bringing the threat for multiple snow events.

While cold air builds across parts of eastern and central Europe later this winter, Scandinavia will have little in the way of lasting cold, as above-normal temperatures prevail throughout the season.

Atlantic storms will occasionally lash the region early in the season pulling mild air into Norway, Sweden and Finland.

High pressure building over the region during the second half of winter will act as a shield against any arctic intrusions as the coldest air settles farther south and east.

"Just because the winter will be a mild one does not mean snow won't accumulate across the Scandinavian lands. It only means the amount of snow days will be below average for many locations," Roys said.

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    Forecasters make grim prediction for UK winters as climate change bites, Metro News

    Forecasters make grim prediction for UK winters as climate change bites

    Floods and record rainfall are set to become more regular, with extreme weather now ‘likely’ in the next three years.

    Met Office experts used a supercomputer to predict what winters will look like in the future, using data from how things have been in the past.

    To break it down: You’re going to want to invest in a mac and some waterproof boots.

    They said that each year there will be around a one in three chance of record rainfall levels in at least one English or Welsh region.

    The record breakers will keep coming because of climate change, which is bringing increased moisture in the air and more extreme weather.

    An extreme winter #rainfall event in England and Wales is likely in next three years, according to new risk method

    — Met Office Science (@MetOffice_Sci) July 24, 2017

    In any given winter, there will be an 8% risk of record monthly rainfall in south east England.

    When the whole of England and Wales were considered, the chance is 33%.

    (The predictions are based on the past and not conditions altered by global warming, so the reality might actually be worse).

    Lead Met Office researcher Dr Vikki Thompson said: ‘Our analysis showed that these could happen at any time and it’s likely we will see record monthly rainfall in one of our… regions in the next few years.’

    There have been several destructive storms in recent years, and sadly they are no longer freak occurrences.

    The North West will remember Storm Desmond which caused serious flooding and damage in 2015.

    The South East saw flooding in 2014 with clean up costs in the Thames Valley alone estimated to be more than £1 billion.

    The new forecast, published in the journal Nature Communications, looks at six regions of England and Wales. Of these, four – south-east England, the Midlands, East Anglia and north-east England – met the threshold set for a high risk of extreme rainfall.

    Meteorologist Prof Richard Allan, from the University of Reading, said exceptional seasonal rainfall in the UK was the result of a ‘perfect storm’ of atmospheric influences.

    Commenting on the research, he said: ‘Using serious number crunching power, the new study plays back thousands of possible weather patterns that emerge from detailed computer simulations of recent decades, some of which produce more extreme rainfall events than have actually been experienced to date ..

    ‘The work compliments evidence that warming of climate is already causing extreme rainfall events to intensify.

    ‘As the planet continues to warm due to human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, extra moisture in the air will fuel increasingly intense rainfall causing a continued rise in the risk of damaging events into the future.’

    UK weather forecast: Met Office says predictions of snow are premature

    UK weather forecast: Met Office says predictions of snow are premature

    The Met Office has confirmed that the UK won't be seeing snow any time soon Mark Runnacles/Getty Images

    The Met Office has squashed rumours that the UK could see snow soon, saying that there is no unusual weather predicted for the next few weeks. While parts of the Scottish mountains could see some sleet next week, the Met Office has said that there is nothing unusual about this and that snowfall here is normal even as early as October.

    While the UK is currently experiencing a slight drop in temperatures, it is only a one or two degrees below the yearly average of 13C. The reason why Britons have felt a lot colder this week is because an easterly breeze has flown in from across the continent after a relatively mild period of temperatures and an especially warm summer.

    A spokesperson for the Met Office told IBTimes UK: "We're not expecting anything out of the ordinary. All it is, is a couple of degrees colder. There's no truth in the rumours that we're going to see widespread snow."

    Even if temperatures do drop lower, the UK is currently experiencing high pressure at the moment, which brings settled weather. The Met Office said: "You need rain – at least – to be able to create snow, so it's unlikely that we would see snow. You might see some sleet on the top of the Scottish mountains, if it gets cold enough, but that is not unusual for this time of year in any way, shape or form."

    Earlier this year, experts said that Britain would be facing the coldest winter in 50 years, which was due to hit the country "as early as October". However, the freeze appears to have been pushed back with much of October looking mild.

    Forecasters fear a repeat of 1963 when the worst winter in history saw temperatures plunge to near -20C in January. According to reports, snow blanketed the country for weeks and the River Thames froze. Speaking of the El Nino's effects on UK weather, Met Office climatologist Dr Doug Smith said in September: "El Nino is one of the most important factors for the UK winter, but it is way too early to tell just how big an impact the phenomenon would have on Britain."

    Weather - UK & Worldwide Forecasts, News & More

    uk football forecast predictions for winter

    GFS, ECM and More

    • Anomalously cold ocean temperatures in the Tropical Pacific or La Nina conditions have become well established. There is a high probability that these conditions will intensify over the coming months and become one of the strongest La Ninas on record.
    • With a strong coupling between the atmosphere and ocean signal, global weather patterns are very likely to be forced by a strong La Nina with dominant high pressure centres in the northern Pacific and in the North Atlantic.
    • La Nina winters have a variable influence on the weather in Europe although we anticipate no sustained extremes of cold and the emphasis on dry, settled weather. Some wintry weather is however expected, particularly during mid to late December an early January.
    • Temperatures are likely to be close to or slightly below average with the coldest weather (relative to long term averages) centred over France and Iberia, the south-east of the UK closest to this cold. Compared to many winters of the last two decades, this coming winter would probably be regarded as cold although not of the same degree as last year or 2008/9.
    Background to this forecast:

    • This forecast is based upon the likely influences of La Nina in the Tropical Pacific, atmospheric signals and air temperatures high up in the atmosphere over the Arctic which are seen as key variables, many of which are dissimilar to last winter.
    • However, the last twelve months (probably thirteen months after October's data) have seen a negative or cold phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (a key measure of the difference in pressure between Iceland and the Azores). This is unprecedented since the index was first compiled in 1950 and reflects a reversal in the normal pressure patterns which played a significant part in last winter's weather.
    • This forecast based upon an understanding of the dynamical processes involving the world's oceans and atmosphere, the use of historical-based analogues and's customised seasonal predictive model based upon the Climate Forecast System (National Centre for Environmental Prediction).
    Record strength La Nina

    • Sea temperatures are widely below normal across much of the Tropical Pacific and these colder waters extend to several hundred metres below the surface in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This is characteristic of a La Nina event of medium strength magnitude.
    • The pattern of surface winds and cloudiness across the Tropics is very typical of La Nina event and model forecasts continue to suggest the sub-surface anomalously cold waters will work their way to the surface over the next 2-3 months further strengthening La Nina to strong category event, potentially the strongest La Nina of the last 60 years given the large volume of below average waters with temperatures up to six degrees below normal.
    • Since July, global weather patterns have been very consistent with La Nina. The European weather patterns associated with La Nina in winter are somewhat variable. Most were dry and mild although there were some colder events in 1955/56 and 1964/5.
    Figure 1: Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

    Click to enlarge

    • One of the keys to understanding La Ninas and their warm counterpart El Ninos is how the atmospheric variables react to the temperatures of the ocean and whether or not the atmosphere is 'going along' with these changes.
    • Most atmospheric variables are also exhibiting extreme La Nina like behaviour. Overall levels of storm activity in the Northern Hemisphere is at a 30 year low despite an active Atlantic hurricane season whilst forward intertia in the atmosphere was the third lowest in 60 years during July and August. The pressure differentials measured in the Southern Hemisphere, which usually indicate the future trends of La Nina have been advertising a strong event in the making.
    • Of the strong La Nina events, these atmospheric indicators suggest we are historically much further advanced at this time. Given feedback loops, atmosphere reinforcing La Nina, La Nina reinforcing the atmospheric variables, it is very likely that an exceptionally strong La Nina event will take place this winter with a probable peak in December or early January.
    Temperatures in the stratosphere

    • One of the key elements of last winter's cold weather was above average temperatures in the upper atmosphere high over the Arctic which promoted blocking highs displacing polar air into Europe.
    • This year we expect the combination of low solar activity and a westerly wind over the Tropics to be less conducive to blocking highs with colder than normal atmosphere over the Arctic driving polar westerlies which tend to favour blocking highs further south around the UK.
    Seasonal Model Guidance (Climate Forecast System)

    • Model guidance is for high pressure close to or north and west of the UK for the majority of the winter with a slight tendency to shift further away to the west during February.
    • Model sees average or slightly colder than average temperatures for the UK, coldest in the south-east and mildest in the north with central Europe slightly below average.
    • Model sees rainfall below average.
    • Good consistency between model updates and output appears to be consistent with historical analogue guidance adding confidence to forecast.
    Winter Forecast details

    • High pressure likely to be centred to the north-west of the UK with winds from the north-west with northerly interludes.
    • Temperatures likely to be below average, the largest departure of the three months compared to long term averages with the coldest temperatures in the south-east.
    • Rainfall likely to be much below average.

    • Large area of high pressure in the central Atlantic gradually edging towards the UK although an unsettled phase likely with potential for snow, particularly in western areas.
    • Likely to be cold to start with fog and frost persistent.
    • Rainfall below average.

    • High pressure centred over the UK with a lot of settled weather.
    • Temperatures likely to be slightly above average although surface temperatures may be depressed by fog and cloud.
    • Rainfall likely to be much below average.
    Forecaster: Stewart Rampling for Issued: 18/10/10

    Click to enlarge

    Click to enlarge

    If you would like to ask questions about this forecast, please feel free to contact us by clicking here or why not join in the discussion on our community forums.

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