I am going to make a guess about how you handicap and bet on sports.
1.) You start by looking at the card and checking the odds for each game.
2.) You handicap the games and narrow down the card to a select few.
3.) You decide how much you will stake for each bet based on your confidence level.
If I was and this describes how you bet, don’t worry, it is is not necessarily a bad thing. I just broke down the most basic handicapping process, one that has worked for decades.
The problem with the process is that it is now out-dated. There is more information available today than ever before. Processing and filtering out the noise have made sports gambling a very complex problem. Determining stake after exposure to this noise makes you suspect to cognitive pricing biases and poor betting practice.
Here are three of the most common issues you might experience from determining your stake at the end of your betting process.
If you cut a card of fifteen games down to three, you will always find a reason to like one game more than the other two. You will give that game more attention and stake more on it. You might even label it as the “bet of the day”.
You know that is the best bet today, but, do you ever question how that “bet of the day” compares to the one yesterday, or the one two weeks ago?
Your stake size suggests they each bet of the day are all equal yet slightly superior to others. But are they that different when looking at the big picture?
Having a bet of the day promotes inaccurate staking. Sports betting is not a day by day event and your staking should not treat it as such.
Handicappers created the unit scale in 1980 as a way to market their wagers on television.
Today, using a unit scale has become common practice for bettors.
Using a unit scale can be dangerous as it creates a bias to the most successful unit ratings. If you are betting using a 1–5 scale and have a great run of results on 4 unit bets, you will subconsciously try to find 4 unit plays when handicapping.
You may also neglect accurately rating 1 and 2 unit bets because they become less relevant and avoid any 5 unit bet as they would be considered a chase.
All bettors over stake.
Many of the customers who buried themselves during my five years with ASureWin did so because they were risking amounts of money that were unsustainable to their bankroll. These bettors did not go broke because of the last bet they lost. They went broke because of the first time they over staked.
The feeling of risking a large amount of money was a rush that needed to be replicated to satisfy a need they created. After experiencing the sense of significant risk for the first time, any bet for less money was insignificant.
Over staking is extremely dangerous and should be avoided at all costs.
To be successful today, you must simplify your handicapping process and make it repetative. This starts by eliminating as many opportunities for emotion to have an impact. A simple way to accomplish this is to eliminate varying stake sizes.
The ideal staking method is to find a dollar amount that is impactful enough to inspire motivation after a win, but insignificant enough it does not trigger negativity after a loss. If you risk this dollar amount on every bet will make you will be emotionally numb to the result of the bet and give you mental clarity.
The most successful bettors are obsessed with their process and do not stress the result. You can control the handicapping process. You can not control the result of the game. Do not let varying stake sizes put emphasis on the outcome of your wagers.
What I am suggesting is not flat betting. Maximising opportunities is crucial. Opportunities to maximise however, are few and far between. Most bets made do not warrant an increased stake amount.
If you are disciplined enough to find “your dollar amount” and stick to it, you will be amazed at the mental clarity you gain and the success you will begin to have.
Sportsbook manager at ASureWin from 2011-2015. Started my own lottery company in 2016 and lost it all. Passionate about writing original betting content.
Staking plans vary in their difficulty; from the very simple to the very exotic and complicated. Staking Plan methodology can be modified to any form of betting or investment, for example, stock market investments, casino table games, etc. Bookmakers want a bettor to pursue losses with blind hope, often depending on luck, and this is what will happen without the use of a disciplined Staking Plan. Staking plans can be dangerous; they cannot turn a bad gambler into a profit maker.
Betting exchanges are a captivating new development in risk markets which has turned the long-established bookmaking and gambling industry on its head. Betting exchanges have huge turnover now and many billions of dollars are matched each month on these markets. Whether your sports betting consists of back or lay gambling there is a staking plan that will suit you. Percentage (bank) staking, like level staking, standardises the amount of the stake, but as a percentage of the size of the current betting bank at the time the bet is placed, rather than as a fixed number of points proportional to the initial bankroll. The first variable you need to specify is your opening betting bank. This is the sum of money you will put aside for your betting.
Bookmakers are in the business to make money and they too gamble as they adjust the odds. Bookmakers have to gamble at every race meeting, but the gambler has the choice to bet or not to bet on any given event. Bookmakers and top level professional gamblers use little known formulas for this form of calculated betting, where pro’s make calculated risks over days, weeks or even months and bookmakers make counter bets to limit their exposure from incoming bets.
The fact of the matter is that Bookmakers always come out in front, although a minority of smart well-informed gamblers do make a regular profit and luck has nothing to do with it. Unfortunately, many do not and this fact is probably the most important weapon in the bookmaker’s arsenal.
Staking plans vary in their difficulty; from the exceedingly simple to the fantastically exotic and complicated. Staking a set amount on each selection, depending on their chance in a race is an example of a simple plan. If you currently do not use a staking plan you could be losing money. When talking about staking plans, I am referring to those that require you to change the size of your bet (up or down) based on the result of your previous bet.
Proper money management may mean different things to different people, but common elements include: the application of a bankroll of known size, set aside for the purposes of gambling, which if lost would not be detrimental to everyday living; the identification of a proper staking plan; the enhancement of returns; the reduction and control of bankruptcy risk to acceptable levels. Level staking forms the benchmark staking strategy against which all others should be compared for profitability and risk assessment.
Without a staking plan it is so easy to see one’s betting bank vanish. We have seen people go bust (when one’s betting account reaches zero) because they thought that they didn’t need a staking plan. This is the function of a staking plan; without this one could be placing the incorrect stake onto the wrong horse. Ultimately betting without a staking plan will negate good horse selection.
The aim of the Profit Per Race staking plan is to achieve a target profit per race. This could be for instance £1 or 1 point per race.
Once you have set the value for each point it cannot be changed during the betting sequence.
The system works on the assumption that a winner is always just around the corner, no matter how long your losing run is.
For example if we had ten losers in a row, and each point was worth £1, then the stake for the eleventh bet would be to recover £11, £1 for each race.
It is very important to consider the risks before deciding upon your final settings, as sometimes there is not a winner around the corner.
An example of the system in operation is as follows:
You set the first target by adjusting the Initial Stake accordingly.
Target per Race
When the target profit is reached, the sequence resets and starts again.
As you can see, in race 5 the target profit of 13.20 points was reached. At this point all the profit is withdrawn and the sequence starts again with 1 point as the target.
To calculate the stake, simply divide the figure in the Target + Loss column by the odds of the next selection (minus -1). If you then go on to win at 3.0 or over you will recover ALL previous losses and give the expected profit of £1 per race.
In itself, this is a very powerful staking plan and if you can work out your optimum variables, you can very often turn a negative betting sequence positive.
To set your minimum odds for the selections just use the Selections odds range on the Selections tab. This example can be seen
below showing that in Race 5 the profit was reached.
We were selecting 1st favourites on the UK Greyhound market above 3.0. The % of bank stake was set to approx £1 level stakes.
Following a sensible staking plan plays a very important part in being a successful gambler. It is essential that you avoid following a staking plan that is too aggressive.
I often see it widely discussed that following certain staking plans will give you an edge. This is a completely false.
I have even heard certain so called “tipsters” saying their service only works with a certain staking plan. If a betting service is not profitable to level stakes then it will not sustain long term profit on any staking plan.
Staking plans can only serve to exaggerate or minimize the size of your profits and losses.
Bad staking plans often involve betting large amounts of your bankroll or chasing your losses. These staking plans are overly aggressive and will usually lead to you losing your entire bankroll.Staking Plans to Avoid The Martingale
One of the most well known staking plans and also one of the worst. The martingale is often used when betting at odds close to or exactly evens.
The premise of the martingale is simple. Double your bet after a loss until you hit a winner. Then return to your original stake size.
Doing so means that you win all your losses back plus the profit from your original stake.
Sound good? Well it’s not.
When you hit a long losing streak which happens more than you might suspect the system falls apart.
After just 5 losses at £10 stakes you would be betting £320 just to win £10 and after 10 losses you would be betting £10240 just to win a tenner.
As you can see the staking plans quickly spirals out of control and could only work if you had an infinite betting bank and if you had an infinite betting bank you probably wouldn’t be gambling anyway.
The Fibonacci staking plan is similar to the martingale and is only slightly more sensible.
Following the Fibonacci staking plan involves multiplying your initial stake by the first number in the Fibonacci sequence (which is 1). If that loses you move onto the number which is 1 again. If that bet lost you would multiply your initial stake by 2, then 3, then 5, 8 etc.
Fibonacci Sequence – 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89 etc…
The idea is that by winning a bet you will recover your losses from you last two losing bets, however, much like the martingale, the downfall of this staking plan comes when you hit a losing streak and your stake sizes start to increase very quickly.Level Staking with Stakes Too Big
This one is not so much a staking plan but more of a mistake people often make when using a level stakes staking plan.
A level stakes staking plan is a fairly sensible way of betting but if you set your initial bet size too large then you become a slave to variance. Even if your following a profitable tipster you will have losing runs.
If your stakes are too big your bankroll may not be able to handle a bad losing run and you could end up losing all your money.
To avoid this I would advise that you have a starting bank of ,at the very least, 200 points.
To work out a point value take your initial bankroll and divide it by 200. This will give you the value of 1 point. This will be the amount you stake on each bet.
If you only start with a bankroll of 50 points you could very easily go bust if you hit a losing run. I personally use a bankroll of 400 points and advise a 200 point bankroll as an absolute minimum.So what should you do?
It is vital to remember that a staking plan is not a substitute for bad selections. If the selections themselves are not profitable then no staking plan in the world can make them profitable.
Now you know what not to do you can read about the staking plan I personally use and my advise on bankroll management in my post The Basics of Bankroll Management.Related posts: Trackbacks
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The Retirement Staking Plan was devised by Grandstand's racing analyst Barry Hughes, and is rated by some professional punters and people who know racing, to be one of, if not the best staking plan they have seen.
Barry did not invent this plan by accident, it took know how and hundreds of hours of calculations to get it right.
His aim was to formulate a staking plan that could recoup all losses, and to show profits, even when a plan only breaks even. In other words, over a period of time you might have had 80 bets for 25 winners, you didn't lose, but you didn't win either. He also wanted a staking plan that could withstand long runs of outs and still achieve profits.
He did over a period of time, come up with a staking plan that did these things, but when he applied it to past results on several systems, it worked fine on some, but others, not so good.
He finally came to the conclusion that most staking plans never took into account the average price of the winners. They may work on one that has an average price winner of 5-2, and completely fail on a system with the average price winner of 5-1. The reason being, a system that does average 5-1 winners, will at some stage be more likely to go through a longer run of outs than the one that averages 5-2 winners.
The only thing he had to do now was, to work out a staking plan, with a formula that would suit all plans with different average price winners.
He finally came up with a staking plan that has a divisor, and a target, where your first bet is only 1% of your bank And as you will see he has set this staking plan up in such a way it will suit any system that shows only small profits, and can also show more than 15% at break even. It wouldn't matter if your plan averages 5-2 or 8-1 winners, or anywhere in between. You will know once you have worked out the average price winner of whatever plan you are using, how to set up and use The Retirement Staking Plan.
First. To work out the average price of the winners, ( and you should only do this after you have had more than 20 winners), you total the return of the winners, E.g. 20 winners and the total return was $100 on the TAB. Then you divide 20 into 100 = 5, so your average price winner is 4-1 as the tote return includes your dollar invested. This first step is the most important in setting up the Retirement Staking Plan, it determines your divisor, and when to bring in your safety device.
The best way to show you how to set the plan up is in the following table. First we have a divisor, which is double the average price winner of the plan you are using, say your average price winner is 3-1, your divisor would be six. We also have a tar get. Set up like this:-
First up we know the divisor will be six, double the average price winner of 3-1, your first bet is 1% of your bank, doesn't sound much, but just to show how this plan can produce over a period of time, we have started with a large bank. Now to arrive at your target, multiply your divisor by your first bet, 6 x 100 = 600. So your divisor is six, target 600, first bet 100, which is 1% of your bank, all losses are added to your target, and if you go six without a winner, then start to increase your divis or by one after each losing bet. Following is what to do when you have a run of outs.
As you can see, losses were added to the target, and when we went six without a winner, we increased the divisor, if you do not, bets get out of hand and jeopardize the most important thing, the bank.
Look at the bank after six losers 9092, it could still withstand another 42 without a winner, and that is not because we started with a 10,000 bank, if you started with a 1,000 bank it would be the same, as your first bet would have been 1% = $10. By doing this, the staking plan can withstand 48 without a winner.
Now, after the 4-1, you reduced the target from 2583 to 1723, you then look back to where your target was close to this amount and you go back to where your divisor was on 8, so your next bet is 8 target 1723.
After the 6-1 winner you reduced the target from 2153 to 863, go back to the third bet when your divisor was six, you know then if this and the next three lose, you start to increase your divisor again.
Now each time the bank increases by 200, increase the target by 10, this is another safety device Barry built in to The Retirement Staking Plan. If you add 10 to your target, you only increase a bet by $1, which is only .05% of the bank increase, doesn 't sound much, but over a long period of time, and as the bets increase, you are safeguarding the bank.
When looking at the results, you will see we outlayed 2988 for a profit of 172 or 6% on turnover. What happened to the 15% or more at break even?. The reason for this is ten out of the sixteen bet's were at level stakes of 215. We will show how this ca n change when your divisor remains on six.
Now look what happens if the winners fall in a different order.
With the winner at 6-1, we increased the target to 630, and after the 3-1 winner the profit was 819 with the outlay of 2331 which represents 35% profit on turnover, outstanding results, as the plan showed no profit at level stakes,16 bets 3 winners ret urn 16.
Now the thing to remember is, work out the average price winner then double it, that becomes your divisor. E.g. 5-2 = 5, 3-1 = 6,7-2 = 7, 4-1 = 8, 9-2 = 9, 5-1 = 10. Also the divisor tells you how many losing bets to go before you increase your divisor . Start with 1% of a bank you can afford, and you have a staking plan that will show 15% at break even, and sometimes more. It will also, over a period of time as the bets increase, withstand more than 48 without a winner.
You should now be able to understand why Barry put so much work into The Retirement Staking Plan. We have quite a few clients that have not looked back since putting this Staking Plan to good use. Others have sold so called infallible staking plans for hundreds of dollars, most fail, as they will not withstand the losing runs. Barry thinks everyone should be using The Retirement Staking Plan which is offered free of charge.
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