Tolworth Hurdle Betting Line - Sports Betting

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Tolworth Hurdle Betting Line

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Tolworth Hurdle Preview - Tipsters Empire

Tolworth Hurdle Preview

This week’s feature race is the Grade One Tolworth Novice Hurdle at Sandown run over a distance of 1m 7f 216y. While we only have a small field this looks to be an exciting race with four of the six runners winning last time out.

At the time of writing, Capitaine heads the market which makes sense given that he is the only one in the line up to run in and win a graded hurdle race, but that doesn’t mean to say the rest of the field aren’t up to graded company. The majority of runners have only had one or two outings over hurdles and put up some eye catching performances and now look ready to step up into graded company.

I think there is no better place to start than taking a look at the market leader Capitaine who won last time out at Ascot in a grade 2 contest. There was no early pace on so his jockey decided to make the running shortly after the tapes rose and he was able to dictate the pace of the race with the rest of the field seemingly happy to sit off him and let him get on with things. To his credit when they did try and close on him he found plenty and pulled clear late on. I do feel he was given a rather soft lead though and had the race run to suit, my concern with him is when he can’t get his own way in front or different riding tactics are used we seem to see a different side to this horse. At Haydock connections decided to hold him up and when he came to make ground on the horse in front he looked rather green and he did tend to hold his head a little high he didn’t appear all that straightforward. I can’t really see him getting this race run to suit and I feel the lack of experience he showed at Haydock may surface again.

So where do we look bar the favourite?

Charlemar’s form from his Aintree win hasn’t worked out very well at all and that has to be a concern. He has done nothing wrong in two starts over hurdles and he deserves to take his chance here but others appeal more.

Chalonnial is from a top stable but I wasn’t overly impressed with the way he won at Bangor on his hurdles debut, that form has yet to be tested. It was his first start of the season and he is entitled to have come on plenty for the run. But there are others in the line up that have been visually more impressive at this stage of their career than him.

Global Stage chased home a fancied horse of Nicky Henderson’s in a bumper at Haydock back in November. The winner has since come out and been beaten in a listed bumper at Ascot. I’m surprised connections have switched Global Stage to hurdles so soon as I felt there was definitely a bumper to be won with him. Gibbes Bay who was made favourite for the Haydock bumper race, and finished 14 3/4 lengths behind Global Stage, came out next time and was beaten 34 lengths by Finian’s Oscar. On that piece of form Global Stage has quite a bit to do on his first start over hurdles to turn that form around. He has ran four times in Point To Points falling twice and finishing second and fourth on both other occasions. So he shouldn’t lack experience but the form link mentioned above leaves him with plenty to find with Finian’s Oscar involved.

Celestial Path has been gelded since arriving off the flat and has been well schooled ahead of his debut under rules. The trainer stated that they were going to school him Friday morning and if all went well he would be entered. Seeing as he has been declared connections must be more than happy with how he has been schooling at home. It’s still a big ask to win a grade one first time out over hurdles, though. He was a smart horse on the flat having won a listed race at Haydock on his second start of his career. He has, however, never raced further than 1m 1f so we can’t be totally sure that he will stay. We can’t however, take away the ability that he showed on the level and was rated as high as 110 at one stage. He is certainly an interesting runner but there are a few question marks surrounding whether he will stay the trip and whether he will take to hurdles. But looking at his price and the ability he showed on the flat then his current price is more than fair and I’ve seen far worse 16/1 shots than him.

Finian’s Oscar ran out an easy winner at Hereford on his first start over hurdles. The form from that race has yet to be tested but he could only beat what was put in front of him and he did so in eye catching fashion. He won over 2m 5f that day but is closely related to Finian’s Rainbow who finished second in an Arkle before going on to win a Champion Chase so you would hope the drop back to 2m wouldn’t inconvenience him too much. The attitude he showed at Hereford for such a young horse will hold him in good stead in this company. Connections also have Pingshou who has been racing in Novice Hurdles and has shown fair form. He stepped up in trip on New Years Day at Cheltenham where he travelled well but didn’t appear to stay. Given that Finian’s Oscar came out first time and won over 2m 5f I’d have thought it would have made sense to have entered him up on New Years Day over a trip that he stayed well last time. While I don’t feel Pingshou had shown enough to win this race, I’m thinking along the lines that Finian’s Oscar must be showing a decent level of ability at home to firstly drop him in trip, and secondly enter him at Grade One level. Connections will have a fair idea of the level of his ability with Pingshou a good bench mark.

So what’s the verdict?

Capitaine brings graded winning form to this race and while he has his quirks he still looks a talented young horse. Whether at this stage of his career he can for fill is full potential I’m not overly sure but in another year or two once he has grown up mentally he looks to have a bright future ahead of him. Celestial Path is another interesting runner on his hurdles debut if he stays the trip and takes to hurdles then I’m sure his trainer can transfer the ability he showed on the flat to hurdles.

For me, Finian’s Oscar gets the nod. I felt he jumped travelled and showed a really good attitude at Hereford and given the way he pulled clear late on he looked a horse that would have no problem stepping into graded company. Given the current form of his trainer in the big races this season I certainly wouldn’t rule out him adding another big race win to his impress haul already this season.

I hope you have enjoyed reading this week’s blog. Good luck with whatever you decide to back.

The Jumps Punter

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Big day for grey – The Sun

Big day for grey

The grey bounced back from defeat at Haydock with an impressive win at Ascot on his last start and is held in high regard by connections

TRAINER Paul Nicholls is hoping to avoid any mis-Caps in this weekend's Tolworth Hurdle.

The Ditcheat maestro admits he messed up the tactics when Capitaine suffered his only defeat over hurdles at Haydock in November.

And sure enough the dashing grey proved his true ability when an impressive winner of the Grade 2 Supreme Novices' trial at Ascot last month.

Nicholls said: "We always thought a lot of the horse but we got the tactics completely wrong at Haydock and the ground was heavy.

"The last day at Ascot, Sam Twiston-Davies said there didn't look like there was any pace so I said to let him bowl along in front as he gallops and jumps well.

"He was impressive and we got the best out of him. He wasn't stopping.

"He'll have a big chance on Saturday as long as the ground's not too soft, he wouldn't want much more rain as he's a good moving horse.

"He's such an exciting prospect and we're very happy to have him in the yard."

Champion trainer Nicholls reckons Capitaine could be a serious contender for Cheltenham Festival honours.

He added: "I'd definitely like to think this time next year we'll be in the Arkle with Capitaine, I see him as a future chaser.

"Whether he can win a Supreme I don't know — he's not unlike Noland and Al Ferof who we won it with."

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Tolworth hurdle betting line

Sandown and Wincanton Preview

Today’s Channel 4 racing comes from Sandown and Wincanton where we navigate our way through some tricky looking handicaps.

2:35 Sandown 32Red Hurdle (Novices´ Hurdle) (Registered As The Tolworth Hurdle Race) Grade 1 2m 110y

The only non-handicap of the televised races, it should have a bearing on Cheltenham antepost markets. Prospect Wells is 14/1 (Boylesports) for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at the festival and he will need to win this race to stake his claims, he is 7/4 (BlueSq) to do so.

On form he should win the race, and although he came unstuck at Ascot due to a lack of pace, it was a much tougher contest than he faces today.

Colour Squadron won a fair maiden by dictating the pace and Richard Johnson will almost certainly employ the same tactics. This is a big step up in class however and odds of 11/5 (Sportingbet) don’t look especially attractive.

2:50 Wincanton Handicap Chase Cl2 2m5f

An almost impossible handicap to solve which is reflected in the betting. The bookmakers go 9/2 the field in a seven runner race! Pasco, Consigliere, Minella Theatre and Atouchbetweenacara have one win between them since November 2009. I cannot find any evidence that they will recapture past glories today.

Coup Royale was found to be wrong when pulled up on his seasonal debut but had won before that, albeit almost a year ago. He looked quite a useful chaser in the making and with relatively few miles on the clock he can continue his progression. He is 9/2 with Stan James.

3:10 Sandown Handicap Chase Cl2 3m110y

Plenty of horses arrive in good form with Master Of The Halls heading the market at 7/2 (Bet365). This represents a drop in class after he won a listed race at Aintree in December, it was his fourth chasing success in just seven starts. The one negative is that he has never achieved a Topspeed rating anywhere near his handicap mark.

Hold On Julio (7/2 with Bet365) sneaks into the handicap off bottom weight and arrives on the back of a win over course and distance. He has been mainly plying his trade in point to points and the step up in class might find him out.

The Panama Kid couldn’t quite complete a four-timer last time out, but on better ground he doesn’t look a forlorn hope at 25/1 (Sportingbet) considering the form he is in.

Selection: Our tipster likes Wymott at 10/1 with Bet365 (read his thoughts here).

Best Free Bets Related Articles JLT Novices’ Tip: Top Notch

Unbeaten this season and ran a fast time and fast closing sectional when earning a big speed rating at Sandown last time out.

Pertemps Final Tip: Arctic Gold

Ran a couple of good races at the start of the season, winning a nicely at Sandown. Been chasing since and looks competitive off a mark of 138.

Neptune Novices’ Tips: Messire Des Obeaux

Beat Ballyandy at Sandown and also a Grade One winner. Underrated because of narrow defeat last time.

Newbury Tips: City Of Joy

Slowly into stride at Sandown but made eye-catching progress from a hopeless position.

Doncaster Tips: Harbour Master

Ran the faster closing sectional by 1.27s at Sandown and like his half-sister is a late developer.

Brighton Tips: Permera

Form looks moderate but fourth fastest closer at Sandown last time and those quicker have since finished 211112.

2016 Neptune Hurdle Tips, Trends & Betting

2016 Neptune Novices Hurdle Tips & Betting

The Baring Bingham Novices Hurdle, better known under its sponsors title as the the Neptune Investment Management Novices Hurdle, is the premier middle distance novices hurdle in the UK.

Run over 2 miles 5 furlongs it features ten hurdles and gets the action underway on the second day of the Cheltenham Festival.

The Neptune Investment Management Novices Hurdle has launched the careers of some of the biggest hurdles stars in the history of jumps racing, including Istabraq, Hardy Eustace and Faugheen.

Neptune Investment Management Novices Hurdle trends

Meaningful trends in the Neptune Novices' Hurdle are far and few between. Antepost favourites have taken the race twice in the last five years, but couldn't break into the top two in the remaining three.

Neither is the influence of ratings on the race very clear. The top rated horse in the field has won the race twice in the last five years and the only insight those two wins offers is that horses with ratings around the 150 mark are strong contenders, which is a given anyway.

Each of the last five winners finished in the top two in their previous race, an insight that won't do much to narrow down the list of title contenders.

Which all means that each field needs to be assessed entirely on its own merits, with due caution being applied to the favourite selected by the bookies.

2016 Neptune Investment Management Novices Hurdle field

The field for the Neptune Investment Management Novices Hurdle has produced an unusually short odds favourite in Yanworth. He's won four races on the trot this season, including trials for the Neptune Hurdle and Supreme Novices Hurdle. While this winning streak is impressive, it's his large winning margin last time out that has secured him such strong backing. He won at Cheltenham by 7 lengths when asked to run 20.5 furlongs for the first time, and did so over heavy ground.

However, Yanworth isn't the only form horse in the field. Yorkhill heads to Cheltenham on the back of five consecutive wins. This winning streak included a Grade 1 win in the Tolworth Hurdle over 16 furlongs last time out. Like the favourite, he's also won around the 20 furlong mark by a big margin, beating a field of 16 at Punchestown by 8.5 lengths over heavy ground in December. With a rating of 154, he's a good each-way to nothing option at 4/1.

A Toi Phil is third in the betting thanks to a 7 length win in a Grade 2 win last time out. While his recent record is not quite as impressive as the favourites, he looks like he's run himself into comparable form and offers the best antepost price of the top three at 6/1.

Yorkhill has the best form and rating in the field, and gets our vote ahead of the underpriced Yanworth. Put an each-way bet on him while you can still get him above 4/1 at Stan James.

2016 Neptune Investment Management Novices Hurdle odds Betting Specials Get a cash back refund if your horse doesn't start
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